IBA-SBP Consumer Confidence Index

Sponsor: State Bank of Pakistan
Principal Investigators: Qazi Masood Ahmed, Naeem u Zafar, Ahmed Raza, Shakeel Khoja, Asad Ilyas, Mehwish Ghulam Ali.

Consumer Confidence Survey is a joint program of IBA and State Bank of Pakistan. It is a nationally represented bimonthly telephonic survey. Pilot of this survey was initiated in July 2011 and first wave got completed in January 2012, second wave will be initiated in March 2012. Indices generated from this survey will be used to manage aggregate demand, formulate monetary policy, and help businesses to plan their production decision.

At this point survey is in its initial stage not much can be said about its predictive power. We have to wait for two to three years so that enough data points are accumulated to compare the people expectation of certain macroeconomic variables and the realized values of respective variables. Once enough data is available and its predictive power is established then the indices generated from the survey can be used to understand consumer expectations and their effects on aggregate demand.